The race to build artificial intelligence infrastructure is boosting world trade at a time of higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, says the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, published on 7 October in partnership with New York University’s Stern School of Business. (It was previously known as the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker.
The report shows that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the rebound from the Covid crisis. A major driver was strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis.
“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express chief executive John Pearson said: “Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”
While the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted important trade routes, the effects remained concentrated, says the report. Economies dependent on the Strait were hit particularly hard. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the UAE in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
Meanwhile, US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. The US has accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Also, most other countries refrained from broad retaliation but instead increased efforts to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.
The report projects that global goods trade will expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029, which would be substantially faster than the 2.7% recorded over the previous decade.
NYU Professor Steven Altman, commented: “The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war. The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialized producers work together across countries. It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth. The value of its trade rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%.
East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth, but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom contributed to this increase.
While the weakening of US–China ties is significant, the global impact remains surprisingly small, the report argued. For example, trade between the US and China accounted for 3.5% of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to only 1.6% during the first five months of 2026.
Meanwhile, close US allies have largely maintained their relationships with China, challenging suggestions that US/China decoupling is dividing the world economy into rival blocs.
