Geopolitics has had little effect on the trend towards globalisation, except in a few specific cases says DHL in the 2024 edition of its Global Connectedness Report, due to be published on 15 March.
It claimed that in 2023 globalisation remained at close to the record of 2022, despite a wars, crises and other geopolitical shocks.
But it noted a falling off in trade and ties between the US and down by about a quarter since 2016 and a trend that gathered pace in 2023. However, trade flows between the two countries are still among the largest in the world.
The other major exception was trade between Russia and Europe, following the imposition of sanctions as result of the invasion of Ukraine.
The report, which seeks to measure trade connectedness in more than 180 countries and regions, named Singapore, the Netherlands and Ireland as the most globalized countries. The UK’s flows are the most broadly distributed around the world, it added.
There is little, if any sign of globalization giving way to near shoring and trade is in fact taking place over greater distances,. Only North America shows a definite trend towards near-shoring, said DHL.
Companies earnings from sales abroad is increasing and there is no sign of any reduction in cross-border mergers and acquisitions.
However, the report adds that globalisation must be put into context; it is growing rapidly, but from a low level and domestic still far exceeds international trade.
