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Trump tariffs put earthquake under airfreight market

Analyst Niall van de Wouw has described US President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ – in which he announced major tariff hikes on imports from most of the country’s trading partners as “a seismic shock” for e-commerce.

De Wouw, who is Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, said that the cargo market is reevaluating its future as shippers, forwarders, airlines, and consumers come to terms with the economic reality of new import taxes and a potential international trade war. 

As expected Trump has also confirmed the elimination of duty–free de minimis treatment for low-value imports from China and Hong Kong, starting 2 May. All relevant postal items valued at or under US$800 previously qualifying for the de minimis exemption will become subject to a duty rate of either 30% of their value or US$25 per item (increasing to US$50 per item after 1 June 2025).

The announcement was one of many as Trump imposed sweeping global import taxes on goods into the US from 9 April.

Already reeling from the potential impact of the US’ actions, global air cargo demand is likely to suffer further harm from retaliatory actions by other countries. EU President, Ursula von der Leyen, called the US decision “a major blow for the world economy.”    

De Wouw warned that after more than a year of double-digit growth, air cargo now faces an uncertain future.

“In my 30 years working in the air freight industry, I cannot remember any other unilateral trade policy decision with the potential to have such a profound impact on the market at a global level,” he said.

“E-commerce has been the main driver behind air cargo demand. If you suddenly and dramatically remove the oxygen from that demand, it will cause a seismic shock to the market,” he added.

China-to-US e-commerce shipments alone account for roughly half of the cargo capacity on this eastbound corridor and around 6% of global air freight demand. Amy disruption to this will free up a significant part of this corridor’s cargo capacity and spread its impact to the rest of the market, van de Wouw said.

Air cargo market data for March clearly indicated shippers and forwarders were ‘hedging their bets’ and buying time before making longer-term commitments to capacity as they waited to see how the impact of newly-imposed tariffs and international trade tensions unfolded. In fact, there were no majorc signs of panic as demand rose +5% year-on-year against a strong comparison 12 months ago.

However, the economic fallout following the latest events is now likely to place further pressure on airfreight rates. Global air cargo spot rates in March continued their levelling out trend seen over the past year, increasing at their lowest pace since June 2024 at +6% year-on-year.

Given the tumultuous market uncertainties, the latest air cargo market data reflected the cautious ‘wait and see’ approach being adopted by industry stakeholders. Shippers negotiating contracts in Q1 2025 preferred shorter-term agreements of three months or less, representing 79% of contracts – an increase of nearly 20 percentage points year-on-year. Meanwhile, freight forwarders continue to place approximately 45% of their volumes in the spot market.

“With the growth of rates slowing overall, we’d normally expect to see shippers making longer capacity commitments to achieve more competitive rates, but, right now, this is clearly a gamble few shippers are ready to take – and this is before we’re even seeing tariffs impacting volumes,” said De Wouw.

He continued: “Considering the economic tensions between the US and its international trading partners, this hesitance is understandable and yesterday’s ‘Liberation Day’ statement by President Trump will take this to a level we haven’t seen before. As companies come to terms with the impact of US tariffs and we await the global response, shippers simply don’t yet know what they’re up against. If they agree a plan for the year now, it could turn out to be much costlier in the longer-term.”

It’s also a ‘big ask’ for a freight forwarder to commit to a fixed rate for a year, even with various ‘escape clauses’ in place, van de Wouw added. “In this environment, the T&Cs are becoming just as important as the air freight rate,” he said.

March saw a third consecutive month of tempered single-digit global air cargo demand growth, although not as subdued as might be expected. The temporary suspension of the de minimis ban by the US government on inbound Chinese shipments produced a recovery in transpacific e-commerce demand, but this is set to change following the latests announcement.

The impact on e-commerce volumes carried by air into the US will not only mean higher prices for consumers, it also raises the prospect of increased border congestion given the sudden and dramatic increase in shipments needing to be processed by US Customs and Border protection. The US Department of Commerce attempted to allay these concerns by stating it has adequate systems in place to collect additional tariff revenue on the 4 million de minimis shipments a day entering the US.    

Global air cargo supply grew +2% year-on-year in March, but this was still at slower than demand growth. With a combination of supply/demand rebalancing, the dynamic load factor stayed on par with last year at 60%.

The addition of summer capacity from the end of March to satisfy peak passenger travel demand could see one of two scenarios unfolding in the current climate, van de Wouw indicated.

“There appears to be a fundamental shift in sentiment emerging in the consumer market in response to the potential chaos and added costs of tariffs being imposed on and by countries and trading blocs.What happens if there is less passenger demand across the Atlantic this summer? Less passengers means less bags, which produces even more cargo capacity in the market. If passenger and cargo volumes feel an impact, the next step might be for airlines to downgrade or divert capacity.”

In terms of regional developments, despite double-digit demand growth month-on-month in March, Northeast Asia to Europe spot rates were unchanged at US$4.28 per kg as airlines allocated more capacity to the market. Thanks to buoyant e-commerce demand during the month, the corridor’s spot rate increased +14% year-on-year. In contrast, the trade imbalance meant backhaul trade showed a -2% rate decline month-on-month and -14% year-on-year to $1.37 per kg.

The Northeast Asia to North America market showed a noticeable spot rate increase of +9% month-on-month to $4.17 per kg, undoubtedly driven by the temporary removal of the de minims threshold for Chinese shipments in early February.

Similar to the Europe to Northeast Asia corridor, the North America to Northeast Asia market showed a slight decline of -1% month-on-month and a considerable -20% spot rate reduction year-on-year.

Unusually, the Transatlantic market recorded both fronthaul and backhaul rates increases in March. The westbound air spot rate grew +2% month-on-month to $2.51 per kg and +22% year-on-year. Eastbound rates grew +4% month-on-month and were +1% higher year-on-year to $1.11 per kg.

Niall van de Wouw says market anxiety and uncertainty is not good for anyone: producers, consumers, airlines, or forwarders. “It’s a crazy environment, left and right,” he said.

“No one is benefitting from this situation because it’s impossible to plan effectively against a moving target. Clearly, everyone will be waiting to see how the removal of the de minimis threshold and all the global tariffs already announced and those still to come will impact trade, as well as how quickly there will be less demand and, consequently, less airfreight. It’s all expectations right now, but we must expect the situation will get worse before it gets better.” 

Cargo-partner adds to Mexico airfreight options

Austrian-headquartered Cargo-partner, now a group company of Nippon Express Holdings, has expanded its air freight services in Mexico.

The forwarder launched an air consolidation service from Frankfurt to Mexico City in 2024, and has since added consolidation services from Hungary and Austria. It also offers regular services between Mexico and Asia, including China and Hong Kong.

It offers Economy, Priority and Emergency service levels.

Good start to year for German air hub

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Hahn Airport – about 50 miles west of Frankfurt –handled around 22,000 tons of air freight in the first quarter of 2025, around 8% more than in the same period last year. Managing director at TRIWO Hahn Airport, Rüdiger Franke, said: “This was a good start to 2025. With its 24-hour operating permit, Hahn Airport remains attractive. However, it remains to be seen how the current geopolitical uncertainties will affect the cargo business.”

Hahn was developed from a former US military airfield into a commercial airport in 1993. It offers a 24-hour operation and is an alternative to Germany’s frequently congested main gateway at Frankfurt.

Freightos adds Air Europa routes

Spanish airline Air Europa has joined the Freightos booking and payment platform. It adds the carrier’s Spain-Latin America routes, along with 15 domestic destinations within Spain and 40 international routes across Europe, North America, and Latin America. Initial digital booking capabilities will focus on the Spanish export routes–connecting Madrid with Barcelona, Bilbao, Valencia with Air Europa’s global network–and then add key international origins in Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, including perishable cargo capacity from Latin America.

Emirates rethinks courier delivery

Emirates Skycargo has launched an Emirates Courier Express end-to-end delivery service. It aims to break away from traditional hub-and-spoke models, with packages making multiple stops before arriving at destination and instead travelling from origin to destination directly, like passengers. The carrier says that this significantly reduces time in transit and handling.

The carrier is offering different service levels, ranging from next day urgent delivery to a two-day Premium service.

Emirates Courier Express has access to over 250 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft to move packages worldwide and is complemented by a network of partners to manage customs clearance and first and last mile transportation.

Emirates has worked with customers to pilot the product, before launching to market. Over the last year, Emirates Courier Express transported several thousands of packages from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, South Africa and the UK with an average delivery time of under 48 hours.

At launch, Emirates Courier Express will be active and available in these seven markets, but will ultimately be expanded across its entire network.

Emirates SkyCargo divisional senior vice president, Badr Abbas said, “Emirates Courier Express is an evolution in how we move goods across the globe, at speed and at scale. Building on our world-class and well-established infrastructure, and reimagining traditional logistics processes where necessary, this innovative solution does not just meet the Emirates Gold Standard of reliability and excellence but sets a new benchmark for what’s possible. This is only the beginning of our vision to continuously innovate and lead the charge in the express delivery sector.” 

Senior vice president of product and innovation, Dennis Lister, added: “Emirates Courier Express is the result of challenging the status quo. Along with the industry, we watched the increasing volumes of cross border shipping and challenged ourselves to find a better way to transport these goods faster and more efficiently. The new product launch reflects our ongoing commitment to push the boundaries to introduce innovations which drive real impact and ensure our customers always have access to the fastest, most reliable and cost-effective solutions available.” 

Air Canada restarts Ottawa-Heathrow flights

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Air Canada has resumed flights from Ottawa to London Heathrow with a Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft. Services will operate four times weekly with connections at Heathrow across Europe, the Middle East, India and Africa. The carrier will serve Heathrow from six Canadian cities, with up to 63 weekly flights in summer 2025.

The carrier is also launching thrice weekly 787-9 flights between Vancouver and Manila, rising to four a week in May.

Unilode to manage Magma’s ULDs

Avia Solutions Group’s Magma Aviation has awarded a multi-year ULD management partnership to Unilode Aviation Solutions.

Unilode will ensure Magma Aviation’s day-to-day ULD needs are supported throughout its global network and the partnership also includes Unilode’s digital service, track-and-trace coverage, maintenance and repair services, complete operational management planning, and oversight for the cargo solutions company’s 3,500 ULD needs.

Magma Aviation chief executive, Peter Kerins, said: “By transitioning to Unilode, we will not only have access to the world’s largest ULD fleet, but we will also benefit from improved ULD visibility through Unilode’s innovative digital management systems.

“This agreement is not just about numbers and resources, it is about building on our operational efficiencies to further enhance our services. With Unilode’s support, we can streamline our processes, optimise our logistics, and continue to be proud of the flexible and comprehensive services we deliver to our customers.”

Turkish Cargo returns to Maastricht with flights from Ecuador and Miami

Turkish Cargo has returned to Maastricht Aachen Airport with two weekly freighter flights operating a Quito-Miami-Maastricht-Istanbul rotation.

The flights will transport flowers, other perishable goods and general cargo. The airport’s Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) status will allow goods to move faster through customs.

The airport’s head of commercial development, Dean Boljuncic said: “Our specialized in-house cargo hub was chosen for its fast and efficient service, a one-stop shop model that bolsters our handling capacity and customized provisions.” said,

The Royal Schiphol Group took a 40% stake in Maastricht-Aachen in 2023 as an alternative to the Netherlands’ main gateway.

Awery gives Schiphol courier Wings

Awery Aviation Software  says that Schiphol-based on board courier Wings achieved a 25% increase in productivity since implementing its tailored digital solution.

In collaboration with the Wings team, Awery developed a comprehensive OBC service solution, incorporating Awery’s enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, with custom-designed track-and-trace software accessible through a mobile application.

Wings has a network of over 3,200 couriers in over 150 countries.

Awery founder and chief executive, Vitaly Smilianets, said: “For Wings on Board, we developed a solution that automates previously manual tasks, and provides secure access to critical operational data, allowing for communication between all parties involved in the shipment.”

The solution digitalises Wings’ day-to-day operations from request and quotation handling to mission and courier management, allowing the Wings team to win more business with the same number of staff.

 Wings managing director Raz Brod (pictured), added: “We realised the need for a technology partner who could develop a solution to eliminate the time-consuming manual processes that were slowing down our operations, and since implementing Awery’s software, we have seen a significant increase in efficiency.”

DHL gains medical expertise

DHL Group is to acquire 100% of Cryopdp, a global provider of supply chain solutions for the life sciences sector from Nashville-based parent company, medical logistics specialist Cryoport, subject to regulatory approvals.

Cropdp specialises in movements for clinical trials, biopharma and cell and gene therapies. It has offices in 15 countries and processes over 600,000 shipments per year, serving customers and patients in over 135 countries.  

At the same time, DHL is entering into a strategic partnership with Cryoport. The two companies aim to strengthen their supply chain services offering to the global life sciences and healthcare sector.

DHL Group already has an established life sciences and healthcare business that contributed over €5 billion to global sales in 2024.

Chief executive of DHL Supply Chain, Oscar de Bok, said: “The acquisition of Cryopdp is a crucial step for our supply chain business as we look to further expand our Pharma Specialized Network to meet the evolving needs of clinical trials, biopharma and cell and gene therapies, while further strengthening our presence in the conventional pharma and life sciences healthcare segment. The acquisition of CRYOPDP and the expanded partnership with Cryoport Inc. will enable us to offer integrated end-to-end solutions that enhance our capabilities.”

Cryoport chief executive, Jerrell Shelton, added: “We are very pleased to be able to further expand our trusting relationship with DHL Group. Together, we will offer an expanded range of supply chain solutions to meet the critical supply chain needs of businesses and patients. This strategic partnership combines the strong expertise of DHL Supply Chain and Cryopdp and provides Cryoport with the opportunity to further expand its presence in global growth markets such as Asia Pacific, as well as Europe, the Middle East and Africa.”