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Outlook uncertain as consumers vote with their wallets

Global air cargo spot rates declined for a second consecutive month in June, down -4% year-on-year as supply of capacity overtook demand for the first time in 19 months, says industry analyst Xeneta. There are concerns over a more challenging second half of 2025 on the back of uncertainty over the prospects for international trade, according to the latest data.

Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s called this market performance “unsurprising”’ adding that while politicians are continuing to trade economic blows over tariffs, the latest monthly intelligence also signals that consumers are ‘voting with their wallets’ and looking to save money on non-essential goods.  

Global air cargo volumes were flat in June, up just +1% year-on-year, while available capacity measured over the same period edged up +2%.

Van de Wouw commented: “The air cargo market is losing altitude amidst so much uncertainty. For consumers who were already under severe financial pressure from the rise in the everyday cost-of-living, the added cost of tariffs means they are more likely to think twice about buying many of the types of goods which are exported and imported by air. ”

 “When Xeneta reported April’s market data, we asked ‘how bad will it be?’ over the rest of 2025. That’s certainly top of mind now for airlines and forwarders, but also for shippers and consumers. Every economist will tell you that with tariffs there are no winners.

“It’s wrong to think falling air cargo rates on key trade corridors automatically represent a boon for shippers. With weaker consumer confidence, low rates are little comfort when underlying demand is deteriorating,” van de Wouw added.

Air cargo data for June comes against a backdrop of mounting uncertainty. The temporary suspension of new US tariffs is set to expire on 9 July for most countries – and on 13 August for China – clouding forward-looking demand. Simultaneously, a spike in crude oil and jet fuel prices, caused by conflict in the Middle East, has yet to lift freight rates because air cargo pricing remains more tightly tethered to market forces than to input costs, he said.

Compounding this trepidation is a weakening US dollar. As most airfreight contracts are denominated in local currencies, the greenback’s around -5 % depreciation (across several US dollar indices) has diminished the headline decline in dollar-based spot rates.

The global dynamic load factor for air cargo in June reflected the market’s downward trend, falling 2 percentage points year-to-year to 56%. Dynamic load factor is Xeneta’s measurement of capacity utilisation based on volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity.

Despite this turbulence, air cargo demand for the first half of 2025 still grew by +3% compared to the same period a year earlier, but the industry is preparing for a less rosy outlook for the remainder of the year given the effects of looming tariffs and curbs on US de minimis exemptions for cross-border e-commerce goods.

“Last month we said sentiment was driving a downturn, but now market fundamentals are starting to kick-in. In this environment, at a certain moment, something’s got to give.

“We are starting to see the longer-term effects of all this uncertainty because a lot of damage has been done. This might be the new reality for the foreseeable future as the industry is facing a much more challenging second half of the year,” Niall van de Wouw commented. 

((X-HEAD : )) Decline in June

Most airfreight corridors recorded year-on-year rate declines in June, underscoring a broad market slowdown. Routes from South-East Asia to both Europe and North America were particularly weak, posting double-digit drops in rates compared with the same period last year when prices had spiked.

In comparison, North-East Asia to Europe remained relatively steady. A surge in e-commerce volumes helped offset a shift in capacity toward the Asia–Europe market, keeping rates in balance. Backhaul routes from Europe and North America to Asia, however, continued their downward trend, reflecting persistent trade imbalances.

Only a handful of corridors defied the broader pattern. Rates from North-East Asia to North America climbed modestly, driven by jitters over the approaching end of the US’s 90-day tariff truce. Transatlantic routes also edged higher: both westbound and eastbound spot rates posted single-digit increases year-on-year.

Faced with this uncertain landscape, shippers have adjusted their procurement strategies. The second quarter, typically the peak season for tendering, saw a notable shift. The share of mid-term contracts (three to six months) rose by eight percentage points compared to a year earlier, largely at the expense of annual or longer-term agreements. Yet, compared to the first quarter, the share of three-month contracts declined 12 percentage points, suggesting that some tenders earlier in the year proceeded out of necessity, particularly for shippers who place a premium on service reliability.

Freight forwarders continued their cautious stance in June. Around 46% of their procured volumes remain in the spot market, reflecting a belief that rates may yet fall further. Their wait-and-see approach favours flexibility over long-term commitments – for now.

Abu Dhabi signs China e-commerce deal

Abu Dhabi Airports has signed a joint venture with Jingdong Property – the infrastructure arm of e-commerce company JD.com – to develop and operate logistics facilities within Abu Dhabi Airports Free Zone. It will include construction of two warehouses, bonded and non-bonded, of over 70,000sq m. It will be JDP’s first development project in the UAE.

U-Freight is Cebu Top Shipper again

For the fifth year in succession, the U-Freight Group has been recognised as a Cebu Pacific Top Shipper for 2024, during which the forwarder handled over 2,300 tonnes of cargo with the airline.

The award was formally presented at Cebu Pacific’s annual Eagle Wings Cargo Awards Ceremony held in Manila with Joey Cheung, general manager (pictured) receiving the award.

Saudi/China deal to boost worldwide routes

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Saudia Cargo has signed a cooperation agreement with China Cargo Airlines to boost connectivity between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. It introduces additional routes across key trade lanes, including a significant increase in cargo flight frequencies between Riyadh and Shanghai, as well as more connections to European destinations. These include the first-ever direct cargo route between Riyadh and Budapest. The partnership will also deliver cold chain services and road connections.

Alcântara to lead Jettainer product management

Jettainer has appointed Lucas Nisi Alcântara to lead its new Product Management division. His main task is the development of innovative products that harness the power of digitalization, emerging technologies, and artificial intelligence. Before joining Jettainer, he worked for over ten years at the LSG Group, among others as senior manager product development Latin America and most recently as director of new business development.

Saudia signs Hong Kong deal with TAM

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Saudia Cargo has also signed a joint venture agreement with its long-standing partner in China, TAM Group. The collaboration establishes ‘Saudia Cargo Global’, based in Hong Kong, that will serve as Saudia Cargo’s command centre for Greater China, Asia-Pacific (APAC) and beyond. Saudia Cargo will introduce enhanced services including freighter operations via Hong Kong, e-commerce logistics solutions and specialised pharmaceutical transport.

Eight into One will go

All-cargo carrier Air One has moved eight 12-metre furnace coil boxes from Liège to Abu Dhabi on behalf of heavylift forwarder. Deugro

The cargo was loaded through the nose door of a 747-400 freighter from the fleet of Air One’s affiliated UK cargo airline, One Air and weight a total of 57 tonnes.

Air One markets a fleet of 11 Boeing 747-400Fs for three airline partners, including two nose-loading versions of the Jumbo. In the last five years, it has organised over 3,750 full charters carrying more than 345,000 tonnes of cargo to more than 100 destinations globally.

The arrival of a second nose-loading 747-400 into its managed fleet at the end of 2024 has increased its ability to transport out-of-gauge shipments as well as supporting flying programmes for projects which require a combination of general and outsize freighter capacity. 

Awery’s Vitaly Smilianets is TIACA inspiration

Awery Aviation Software founder and chief executive Vitaly Smilianets was awarded the first Inspirational Leader Award at The International Air Cargo Association’s (TIACA) Executive Summit  in Hong Kong on 25 June.

It recognises individuals who have demonstrated clear leadership and empowered young people in the industry. The winner was selected by a panel of seven industry professionals under the age of 35.

Smilianets’ was commended by the jury for his leadership at Awery and its CargoBooking platform, as well as his continued advocacy for greater digital adoption and data transparency in air cargo.

Three becomes one for DHL in Frankfurt

DHL Global Forwarding, the air and ocean freight specialist of DHL Group, has officially opened its new air freight hub at Frankfurt Airport’s CargoCity Süd. The 24,500 m² air freight terminal, featuring 54 cross-docks, can process up to 300,000 tons of air freight a year.

It allows existing facilities at Frankfurt Airport to be consolidated at one location, making for more efficient handling, fewer truck movements, and shorter distances for its 100 employees to cover.

Its 3,000sq m of office and social space s also accommodates the European headquarters of the in-house air freight operator StarBroker, which is responsible for booking and coordinating air freight capacities for DHL Global Forwarding and managing controlled flight operations.

The property is built to the latest ecological standards and features a solar roof with a peak output of 2 megawatts.

Swissport makes cargo debut in Italy

Swissport is to launch cargo handling services in Milan Malpensa, Italy.

Its operations are located in a 4,000sq m second-line warehouse in the WTC Malpensa complex and meet the highest industry standards for customs certification, safety, and security.

 wissport will initially focus on import handling, pre-customs clearance, and distribution to express delivery service providers. In a second phase, the company aims to develop export operations and expand its offering to general cargo and air freight customers at Milan Malpensa and throughout Italy.